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1.
Few long-term studies have explored how intensively managed short rotation forest plantations interact with climate variability. We examine how prolonged severe drought and forest operations affect runoff in 11 experimental catchments on private corporate forest land near Nacimiento in south central Chile over the period 2008–2019. The catchments (7.7–414 ha) contain forest plantations of exotic fast-growing species (Pinus radiata, Eucalyptus spp.) at various stages of growth in a Mediterranean climate (mean long-term annual rainfall = 1381 mm). Since 2010, a drought, unprecedented in recent history, has reduced rainfall at Nacimiento by 20%, relative to the long-term mean. Pre-drought runoff ratios were <0.2 under 8-year-old Eucalyptus; >0.4 under 21-year-old Radiata pine and >0.8 where herbicide treatments had controlled vegetation for 2 years in 38% of the catchment area. Early in the study period, clearcutting of Radiata pine (85%–95% of catchment area) increased streamflow by 150 mm as compared with the year before harvest, while clearcutting and partial cuts of Eucalyptus did not increase streamflow. During 2008–2019, the combination of emerging drought and forestry treatments (replanting with Eucalyptus after clearcutting of Radiata pine and Eucalyptus) reduced streamflow by 400–500 mm, and regeneration of previously herbicide-treated vegetation combined with growth of Eucalyptus plantations reduced streamflow by 1125 mm (87% of mean annual precipitation 2010–2019). These results from one of the most comprehensive forest catchment studies in the world on private industrial forest land indicate that multiple decades of forest management have reduced deep soil moisture reservoirs. This effect has been exacerbated by drought and conversion from Radiata pine to Eucalyptus, apparently largely eliminating subsurface supply to streamflow. The findings reveal tradeoffs between wood production and water supply, provide lessons for adapting forest management to the projected future drier climate in Chile, and underscore the need for continued experimental work in managed forest plantations. 相似文献
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利用近7万个湖南及邻近省份重力观测数据、502个GNSS/水准控制点及数字高程模型,以EIGEN-6C4全球重力场模型作参考重力场,采用顾及地球曲率影响的各类地形质量位及引力的第二类Helmert凝集法严密算法,利用高分辨率地形数据恢复甚短波扰动重力场,确定空间分辨率2′×2′的高精度湖南省似大地水准面模型(HNGG2017)。经外部检核,模型整体精度均优于±0.022 m。与历史模型相比,新模型在湖南北部常德汉寿、西南部永州江永等地区精度得到显著改善。 相似文献
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Assessment of alternative adsorption models and global sensitivity analysis to characterize hexavalent chromium loss from soil to surface runoff 下载免费PDF全文
We investigate our ability to assess transfer of hexavalent chromium, Cr(VI), from the soil to surface runoff by considering the effect of coupling diverse adsorption models with a two‐layer solute transfer model. Our analyses are grounded on a set of two experiments associated with soils characterized by diverse particle size distributions. Our study is motivated by the observation that Cr(VI) is receiving much attention for the assessment of environmental risks due to its high solubility, mobility, and toxicological significance. Adsorption of Cr(VI) is considered to be at equilibrium in the mixing layer under our experimental conditions. Four adsorption models, that is, the Langmuir, Freundlich, Temkin, and linear models, constitute our set of alternative (competing) mathematical formulations. Experimental results reveal that the soil samples characterized by the finest grain sizes are associated with the highest release of Cr(VI) to runoff. We compare the relative abilities of the four models to interpret experimental results through maximum likelihood model calibration and four model identification criteria (i.e., the Akaike information criteria [AIC and AICC] and the Bayesian and Kashyap information criteria). Our study results enable us to rank the tested models on the basis of a set of posterior weights assigned to each of them. A classical variance‐based global sensitivity analysis is then performed to assess the relative importance of the uncertain parameters associated with each of the models considered, within subregions of the parameter space. In this context, the modelling strategy resulting from coupling the Langmuir isotherm with a two‐layer solute transfer model is then evaluated as the most skilful for the overall interpretation of both sets of experiments. Our results document that (a) the depth of the mixing layer is the most influential factor for all models tested, with the exception of the Freundlich isotherm, and (b) the total sensitivity of the adsorption parameters varies in time, with a trend to increase as time progresses for all of the models. These results suggest that adsorption has a significant effect on the uncertainty associated with the release of Cr(VI) from the soil to the surface runoff component. 相似文献
4.
全球气候变化下南海诸岛保护优先区识别分析 总被引:3,自引:1,他引:2
全球变化下,珊瑚礁保护区是保护生物多样性、增强珊瑚礁对气候变暖抵抗力的有效方式,而维持珊瑚礁弹性是其核心内容。针对珊瑚礁最具有威胁性的热压力因子,基于南海1982—2009年卫星观测海表面温度(SST)数据和CMIP5加拿大地球系统模式CanESM2模型预估的2006—2100年南海SST数据构建热压力强度模型,从维持珊瑚礁弹性的角度识别IPCC RCP 4.5和RCP 8.5情景下南海诸岛保护优先区。结果表明:RCP 4.5和RCP 8.5情景下13%左右的南海诸岛珊瑚礁识别为保护优先区。根据热压力强度与珊瑚抵抗力及避难所关系,西沙群岛七连屿和晋卿岛近年观测与未来预估的热压力强度均比较低,在保障其服务功能的基础上建议实施完全保护;东沙群岛东沙环礁和中沙环礁排洪滩近年观测急性热压力强度较高但未来预估热压力强度较低,建议实施50%禁止利用保护;中沙群岛黄岩岛近年观测和未来预估的急性热压力强度均比较低,建议实施50%多用途保护。南沙群岛有14%左右的珊瑚礁识别为保护优先区,根据其热压力强度可实施30%~100%禁止利用保护或30%~50%多用途保护。RCP 4.5和RCP 8.5情景下的南海诸岛保护优先区及保护对策,可为维持珊瑚礁生态弹性及应对全球气候变化提供重要的参考价值。 相似文献
5.
Neill Reid 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2003,342(3):837-850
We present high-resolution echelle spectroscopy of 20 stars in 16 systems catalogued as members of the TW Hydrae association, and 16 stars identified as possible new members. We have calibrated the range of coronal and chromospheric activity expected for such young stars as a function of spectral type by combining our observations with literature data for field and open cluster stars. We also compute space motions for TWA members and candidate members with proper motion measurements, using two techniques to estimate distances to stars lacking direct trigonometric parallax measurements. The mean space motion of the four TWA members with known parallaxes is ( U , V , W : −10.0, −17.8, −4.6) km s−1 . 14 of the candidates have properties inconsistent with cluster membership; the remaining two are potential new members, although further observations are required to confirm this possibility. 相似文献
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太阳发电机理论主要解释太阳磁场的起源和演化,是太阳物理中最基本、最重要的问题之一.对它的研究不仅具有重要的科学价值,而且对空间天气的预测和空间技术的发展有一定的影响.随着日震学的发展,该理论也得到了很大改进。从相关观测入手,综述了发电机理论需解释的观测事实,以及为发电机理论提供约束的太阳内部动力学结构;介绍了基本理论和近来的主流模型,并指出尚待解决的问题和进一步的努力方向。 相似文献
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本文利用宽波段能谱结构讨论了四个PG类星体的红外辐射机制.结果表明,在产生红外连续辐射的可能机制中,非热的、具有幂律特征的辐射和被核光度加热的“核尘埃”的热再辐射是红外辐射的主要来源.对于高光度的活动星系核,它的主星系的红外辐射及恒星形成区的红外辐射是可以忽略的. 相似文献
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